Each year I enjoy reading the annual deer season forecast, now generated by DWR’s new Deer Project Leader, Justin Folks. Folks grew up in Staunton, Virginia and is an avid deer hunter. He has served in wildlife management since entering graduate school in 2009 and vast knowledge of Virginia wildlife and whitetail deer. He did his master’s thesis on deer foraging behavior relative to deer densities.
You may not be a hunter (I haven’t deer hunted in years) nor even like hunting, but you probably dislike the possibility of striking a deer with your vehicle more. Hunting seasons are management tools professional biologists use to control herd populations reducing crop damage, auto strikes and the likelihood of disease due to over population. It’s the most cost-effective way to manage Virginia deer herd.
So, for all you hunters and wildlife viewing enthusiasts, here’s what Virginia’s deer expert says you can expect this coming fall around the state’s regions.
Tidewater Forecast
Over most of the past three decades, the deer harvest in Tidewater has been fairly stable between 40,000 and 50,000 deer. The one exception was a period between about 2005 and 2013 when DWR hit the deer herds hard on private lands over much of the Tidewater region with liberal seasons and regulations. Because of this liberalization, the deer kill increased to between 50,000 and 65,000 annually and these regulations combined with three hemorrhagic disease (HD) events in 2012, 2014 (big) and 2016 resulted in a decline in the Tidewater deer herd.
Since that time, regulations have been made more conservative in some areas, and deer herds and deer kill numbers across most of the Tidewater region have recovered. If HD is not a big player in fall 2024, stable deer herds are expected across most of the Tidewater Region. Continued high human population growth rates, crop damage and deer-vehicle collisions remain important deer management issues in Tidewater.
Southern Piedmont Forecast
HD hit the southeastern half of the southern Piedmont like a sledgehammer in fall 2014, but deer populations have recovered since that time. There was a moderate outbreak in fall 2022, but it was limited to a small geographic area in the southwestern Piedmont. Just like in Tidewater, HD can play a major role in the southern Piedmont. As long as there is not another big HD event in this area in fall 2024, deer herds over most of this region should be relatively stable. The southern Piedmont has had the highest deer kill in across all regions since 2020, with Bedford County having the highest total statewide with almost 8,000 deer killed.
There are a few counties in the Southern Piedmont where DWR is actively managing to decrease deer populations (e.g., Bedford, Franklin, Nottoway, and Powhatan) and surprisingly three southern Piedmont counties where DWR is actually trying to slightly increase the deer herd from low (green) to moderate (yellow) levels (Charlotte, Lunenburg, and Mecklenburg).
Northern Piedmont Forecast
This is the one region where the Department continues to maintain long-term very liberal deer seasons. The female deer kill level has been fairly high in this region for many years. Over most of the Northern Piedmont, DWR continues to try reducing the deer population, especially in Northern Virginia (NOVA; Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties) and in CWD DMA2. For the most part, the ultra-liberal NOVA deer seasons have been successful in controlling deer numbers and reducing deer herds in Loudoun and Prince William. Regrettably, they have not yet resulted in reducing the deer populations to the desired levels.
Stable to declining deer herds are expected and desired moving forward. Continued very high human population growth rates and deer-vehicle collisions remain important deer management issues in the Northern Piedmont. HD can also play an important role in this region.
West of the Blue Ridge Mountains
Deer management in western Virginia has been about the same for the past few decades and remains two very different deer management situations.
First, Folks says deer herds on private lands over most of western Virginia have been fairly stable over the past two-plus decades (with the exception of Alleghany, Bath, and Highland counties). Relatively stable deer herds are expected on private lands west of the Blue Ridge. If there is a change, hopefully it will be a slight decline.
Second, with the obvious exception of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in the northern Shenandoah Valley and the New River Valley areas, Folks notes the biggest challenge in deer management in western Virginia over the past 20 to 30 years has been, and continues to be, the public land deer management situation.
Over the past 25 plus years there has been an approximately 40% decline in the number of deer hunters on western public lands (primarily National Forest) and a corresponding 66% decline in the deer kill. To address this decline, the number of either-sex deer hunting days on western public lands has been reduced significantly over the past decade. These changes have been successful in reducing the female deer kill.
“While we’ve reduced female harvest on public lands, the western public land deer population has not and is not expected to recover to past deer population levels unless there is a significant change/major improvement in deer habitat conditions. HD does not traditionally play a major role in deer management west of the Blue Ridge, but recent summers suggest that could change with an increasingly warmer, drier climate,” Folks noted in his forecast report.
Northern Mountains Forecast
As noted at the beginning of this article, CWD is a big issue in the Northern Mountains deer management programs. In every county in the Shenandoah Valley, with the exception of Rockbridge, DWR is trying to reduce deer herds. Conversely, in the three Alleghany Highland counties (Alleghany, Bath, and Highland), DWR is trying to maintain moderate to high population levels (orange).
Approximately two decades ago, all three of these counties exhibited a significant decline in deer populations. Since that time, regulations have been made more conservative and deer populations have stabilized and/or increased. Alleghany County finally met the moderate to high objective this past season. Higher deer populations are desired and tolerated in the Alleghany Highlands because there are fewer people and not a lot of deer-human conflicts.
As stated earlier, there was a big HD outbreak in the Shenandoah Valley last year, but deer harvest numbers were similar to previous years at the county level. Folks said this leaves him wondering if the outbreak wasn’t as bad as originally perceived, or if the area impacted was so small that it didn’t really impact the county totals so much.
“I don’t expect a big decline (if any) in deer numbers at the region or county level, but locally, some hunters may not see as many deer as in previous years. Keep in mind, though, that the current objective in Rockingham and Augusta Counties is to decrease deer numbers, so the outbreak may have helped us in that regard. We shall see after this upcoming season.”
Southern Mountains Forecast
The Southern Mountains are best described by three different deer management approaches. In nearly all the counties in the New River Valley area, DWR is trying to reduce deer populations. In far southwest, DWR is trying to maintain current/stable deer populations, and lastly, in Buchanan County DWR is still trying to increase deer populations. These efforts have been and continue to be successful.
Note there are 97 major deer management units in Virginia. In 43 units, DWR is actively managing to reduce deer populations. In 47 management units (roughly half), DWR is actively managing to maintain current deer population levels; and lastly, in only seven management units, is DWR actively managing to increase deer numbers.
So, what is the forecast for the fall 2024 deer season according to Folks?
“Unless there is a significant HD event, deer populations and the deer kill across most of the state should be stable to increasing. A major increase or decrease in the statewide deer kill total is not expected. Over the past 30 years, the statewide annual deer kill has been relatively stable and ranged from about 179,000 to 259,000 and averaged about 212,000.
“We’ve had two mild winters in a row, so we ought to see plenty of healthy and productive animals this coming season, especially in those areas with above-average acorn production. Deer should be on a higher nutritional plane heading into the growing season, where bucks can really pack on body mass and grow antlers and does can pump out plenty of highly nutritious milk for their fawns. Fawns that start their lives on a higher nutritional plane tend to be more productive later in life than those who start out in poorer shape. We likely had one heck of a cohort of buck fawns from last summer after the big mast crop of fall 2022, so we might see an uptick in yearling six- and eight-pointers this fall,” Folks wrote.
Lastly, Folks says “past experience indicates that the ups and downs in annual deer kill totals are in part attributable to mast (acorns, mostly) conditions and/or HD outbreaks. In years of poor mast crops, the deer kill typically goes up. In years of good mast crops, the deer kill typically goes down. The 2022 season had a big acorn crop and a dip in deer harvest. Last year’s mast crop wasn’t as great, and harvest went up. I can’t forecast the acorn crop, so make sure you get your scouting done…”
Persons interested in more information on Virginia’s deer management program can find the Department’s deer management plan at http://www.virginiawildlife.gov/wildlife/deer/management-plan
You may not be a hunter (I haven’t deer hunted in years) nor even like hunting, but you probably dislike the possibility of striking a deer with your vehicle more. Hunting seasons are management tools professional biologists use to control herd populations reducing crop damage, auto strikes and the likelihood of disease due to over population. It’s the most cost-effective way to manage Virginia deer herd.
e Department’s deer management plan at http://www.virginiawildlife.gov/wildlife/deer/management-plan
