The bulk of waterfowl season opens soon in Virginia (November 18 – 29, December 19 – January 31 ), and hunters up and down the eastern seaboard are readying their gear in preparation. What can duck hunters expect for the 2026-2027 season? That will depend on weather conditions and the duck patterns, but it’s also helpful to know what condition the population is in and here’s what the biologists have found.
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s 2026 Waterfowl Population Status Report estimates 33.44 million breeding ducks, down 2% from 2025 and 6% below the long-term average. Mallards are at 5.9 million, the lowest since 1993 and 26% below average, while diver ducks like canvasbacks and redheads are above average. These numbers feed into Atlantic Flyway regulations that Virginia follows.
Despite extended periods of hot, dry weather, the National Weather Service reports that seasonal rainfall totals were within an inch or two of historical norms throughout much of the region. Areas around the Great Lakes were actually up an inch or two of rainfall from the average. This may result in more ducks and geese along the Atlantic Flyway this season, as water is one of the most important elements for brood survival. Mild temperatures can also aid in waterfowl production and keep some birds around for opening day.
“That rain tapered off later in the summer, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing,” Fleming says. “We currently have dry conditions in some places, but areas with managed water levels or emergent marshes (like beaver flows) are in great shape.” Lowered water levels can be a boon for wild rice and moist-soil vegetation that provides food for waterfowl.
Wood ducks, blue-winged teal, gadwalls, green-winged teal, and wigeon are among the ducks that will migrate to and from Virginia based on the proportion of daylight to darkness, something known as “photoperiod.” This window of movement along the flyways tends to occur around the same time each year.
Knowing when these “calendar ducks” are likely to arrive in your area provides a good excuse to get out to the blind for a hunt. While scouting, be sure to check out areas of shallow water, which are often targeted by calendar ducks for loafing and feeding on aquatic plants and seeds.
It’s also important to understand that the availability of food and open water are two other factors that impact the migration of waterfowl. So, when Mother Nature delivers freezing temperatures, snow, and wind to a portion of the flyway, there is a good chance that ducks and geese will be on the move in search of better conditions. Modern technology has put the weather forecast at your fingertips, making it incredibly easy to know exactly when you need to be out in the field or on the water.
Know that waterfowl tend to start moving a day or two ahead of a cold front. However, some of the best hunting can take place on the clear, cold days that immediately follow the weather system. Be sure to dress warmly and be ready for a show.
After hours of flying, migrating ducks and geese are anxious to find something to eat and a safe spot to rest. When they see large concentrations of waterfowl in a field or on a body of water, they know there must be good habitat and food resources there. So, when birds are on the move, team up with friends to put together the biggest decoy spread you can. This will help draw the attention of passing flocks. These “flight days” are also the time for loud, aggressive calling. A lot of decoys and a lot of calling—what’s more fun than that?
Lastly, though we tend to think of birds migrating north to south, waterfowl will move in every direction on the compass in search of food and open water. A prime example of this is a “reverse migration” of waterfowl from south to north. This usually happens when temperatures warm after a period of cold. As the ground warms and the ice melts, areas of shallow water and new food resources emerge, and waterfowl will return from the south to take advantage of them. This can often be an excellent time to hunt.
Liberal duck seasons (60 days, six-bird bag limit) and resident goose seasons have resulted in high waterfowl harvests in Virginia during the past ten years. Harvest has averaged 132,400 ducks and 47,400 Canada geese from 2016-2020, compared to 114,770 ducks and 25,000 geese during the 1990’s. The long season length and liberal bags offer greater opportunity and a greater cumulative harvest over the course of the season.
Waterfowl hunter numbers in Virginia have been generally stable since the late 1990’s. Since 1999, the Harvest Information Program (HIP) has been used to estimate hunter effort and harvest. The average number of duck and goose hunters over the past three years, as measured by HIP, was 16,700 and 13,800 respectively.
The resident Canada goose population increased significantly in Virginia during the 1980’s and 1990’s, and peaked at 260,000 geese in the late 1990’s. This population caused significant conflicts with human and wildlife populations, and management actions were taken to reduce their numbers. The current population estimate is 122,400 (+/- 49,000) in Virginia and over 1 million in the Atlantic Flyway.
Special resident goose hunting seasons were initiated in 1993 to help manage this population and to provide recreational opportunities for hunters. These seasons occur prior to the arrival of most migrant geese (Sept. 25 in Virginia), or in areas where there are fewer migrant geese. The Federal Framework allows Virginia to conduct a statewide September Resident Goose season from September 1-25.
There are fewer migrant geese in the western portion of Virginia, and special “Goose Hunting Zones” have been established that allow more liberal seasons in areas with a greater percentage of resident geese.
Special resident goose hunting seasons have been very popular and have increased hunter participation and resident goose harvests. These seasons have been very effective in managing resident goose populations and helping to meet our statewide population objectives.
Migrant Canada geese from the Atlantic Population (AP) declined significantly from 1985-1995. The hunting season was closed in 1995 to allow the population to recover. Goose numbers rebounded quickly and a limited season (6 days with a 1-bird bag) was held in both 1999 and 2000. As the population increased, the season was extended to 30 days in 2001, then 45 days in 2002, and 50 days from 2012-2018.
As the population increased, hunting regulations were liberalized. The season was extended to 30 days in 2001, then 45 days in 2002, and 50 days in 2012. The AP bag limit was increased to 2 per day in 2004. In 2019 the AP bag limit was reduced to one bird per day with a 30-day season. This was the result of several years of poor conditions on the artic breeding grounds.
After several years of below average productivity, two concurrent above average breeding seasons led to an increase in AP Canada goose production. This led to liberal harvest regulations for the 2022-3023 hunting season. Unfortunately, this was followed by a poor production year in 2023 and 2024 where the observed pair estimates (115,300 in 2023) and (89,000 in 2024) were down significantly from 2022 (164,000). The 2025 predicted number of breeding pairs based on the integrated population model was 133,500 which falls within the range (125,000 to 160,000 pairs) under which moderate harvest regulations are recommended in the AP Canada goose Harvest Strategy.
In 2020 there was a change in how the Atlantic Flyway, the Mississippi Flyway and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service are managing the different “Migrant” Canada goose populations in the Eastern United States. The Southern James Bay Population (SJBP) is no longer recognized as a separate population, and the eastern portion of this population is now considered part of the Atlantic Population (AP). The AP along with the North Atlantic Population (NAP) are now the only recognized subpopulations of “migrant” Canada geese in the Atlantic Flyway. Nearly all the migrant geese that winter in Virginia are from the Atlantic Population, therefore we do not have a separate NAP hunt zone in Virginia.
• Due to this change, the SJBP Zone had to be eliminated in Virginia. No more than 10% of the band recoveries of artic banded AP Canada geese can occur in a state’s RP zone. To accomplish this 90/10% split the new goose zones are as follows. The area north of I-64 in the former SJBP zone has been placed in our AP Zone, while the area south of I-64, where fewer migrant geese are located, has been included in our Resident Population Zone (RP).
